2010 Pink Salmon Forecast Below Average

     The Southeast Alaska pink salmon harvest in 2010 is predicted to be below average, with a point estimate of 19 million fish (80% confidence interval: 11–32 million fish). An actual harvest of 19 million pink salmon would be 48% of the recent 10-year average of 40 million pink salmon. The 2010 forecast is a “model average” of two forecasts: 1) a forecast of the trend in the harvest, and 2) the forecast trend adjusted using 2009 pink salmon fry abundance data provided by the NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Auke Bay Laboratories. A brief discussion and description of the forecast methods can be found at:
     Department staff will be available to discuss this forecast and plan for the 2010 season at the SE Alaska Purse Seine Task Force Meeting scheduled for December 8, 2009, in Ketchikan. In addition, staff from the NOAA Auke Bay Lab plan to attend this meeting and present their 2010 pink salmon harvest forecast for Southeast Alaska.

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