ADFG Releases SE Pink Salmon Forecast for 2008

Ketchikan. . . The Southeast Alaska pink salmon harvest in 2008 is predicted to be below average, with a

point estimate of 19 million fish (80% confidence interval: 10–34 million fish). An actual harvest of 19

million pink salmon would be 40% of the recent 10-year average of 47 million pink salmon. The 2008

forecast is a “model average” of two forecasts: 1) a forecast of the trend in the harvest, and 2) the forecast

trend adjusted using 2007 pink salmon fry abundance data provided by the NOAA Fisheries, Alaska

Fisheries Science Center, Auke Bay Laboratories. A brief discussion and description of the forecast

methods can be found at:

Department staff will be available to discuss this forecast and plan for the 2008 season at the SE Alaska

Purse Seine Task Force Meeting scheduled for November 27, 2007 in Sitka.

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